The concept of probabilism comes from the Latin word probabĭlis . The term refers to a theological doctrine that states that, from a moral point of view, it is acceptable to opt for a probable opinion and not the most probable one .
According to probabilism, the development of an action is justified when there is a possibility that its effects will be positive , even when social consensus holds the opposite. This current, therefore, defends freedom .
It is possible to find the roots of probabilism in the philosophy of Ancient Greece . At the end of the 16th century , the doctrine began to be promoted by Catholic religious, especially the Jesuits .
For probabilism, the behavior to be adopted has to be defined from what is considered probably right . Thus, a probable opinion can be accepted even if there is another even more probable opinion that is contrary, as long as it is considered that its result may be good.
By choosing a less probable opinion when there is another contrary one, one acts freely. The person, in this framework, does not choose what is more likely, but opts for something less certain.
The Spanish theologian and friar Bartolomé de Medina is considered the promoter of probabilism in Catholicism. In 1577 , when analyzing the Summa Theologica of Thomas Aquinas and following the reasoning of this thinker, he indicated that, when an opinion appears probable, following it is lawful even when the opposing opinion appears more probable.
Returning to Bartolomé de Medina, he was born in the municipality and town of Spain Medina de Rioseco (hence the part of his name that we identify as the surname, something very common in certain parts of Spanish territory) in the year 1527. He studied at the University from Salamanca, where one of his teachers was Francisco de Vitoria , another Dominican friar of great importance. He served as a professor there a few years later.
Over time , several popes condemned probabilism. This is because they believed that it favored laxism , promoting behaviors far from moral values. The big problem for religion occurs because probabilism opens the door for us to choose any option, regardless of its characteristics, for the mere almost capricious fact that it is probable.
This topic is closely linked to the concept of opinion . As explained in the oldest definitions of probabilism, if there is no certainty regarding what is considered correct and moral, then we can only rely on opinions . As we all know, since even today this idea is maintained, all opinions are valid. This is why probabilism respects them without limits.
Medina wrote a lot about this topic, and relied, for example, on some ideas from Thomas Aquinas , who in one of his books stated that no precept should be taken as an obligation, but rather that this should arise from knowing it. Aquinas is also the author of the phrase "doubtful law does not bind."
Although the Dominicans who followed Medina were not at all happy with his ideas, they served people like Gabriel Vázquez, Francisco Suárez and Luis de Molina , among other Jesuits, who, based on reflection on probabilism, created a kind of uncertainty or moral doubt . Their point of view was not very different, since they were in favor of freedom of opinion even in cases in which the contrary is also worthy of respect .
Another of the concepts that were developed at that time was the relationship between cause and effect, understood in a less rigid, more spontaneous and flexible way, which allows reaching the same result through very different decisions (and opinions).